NRI History & Performance

What's graded

Every locked (game, inning) prediction is graded from the final linescore under book-settlement rules: a skipped bottom 9th settles on the top half, walk-off runs count, and innings that never started are void. Nothing is cherry-picked — all nine innings of every locked game appear here.

The three records

All picks is every graded inning. Top 5 is only the slate-wide featured picks (the product). Best of game is each game's single highest-probability inning. Units assume a flat $25 stake — real market prices exist only for inning 1; everything else uses a −110 notional.

Whose odds?

Hard Rock doesn't post first-inning markets, so inning-1 prices are another sportsbook's — FanDuel in practice. The book is named next to every price in the pick history, and only lines captured before first pitch are used (never in-play prices).

Calibration

Groups picks by predicted probability and compares against actual no-run rates — a calibrated model tracks the diagonal. The per-inning table repeats this within each inning number, because being right about inning 7 matters independently of inning 1.

CLV

For inning-1 picks with a market line at lock, closing line value compares the de-vigged probability at lock vs at first pitch. Beating the close consistently is evidence of real signal even before win/loss samples grow.

Record by inning

Record by probability bucket

Calibration — predicted vs actual

Calibration by inning

Inning-1 closing line value

Pick history