A data model that projects how many strikeouts each starting pitcher is likely to record and then compares that projection to the sportsbook line to surface an Over or Under lean.
Status badges
Scheduled — pitcher is the announced probable starter. Confirmed — opposing lineup is posted. Locked — pick has been frozen 30 minutes before first pitch. Final — game complete and graded. Scratched — pitcher pulled before game; pick voided. Void — pick voided for any other reason.
Edge & recommendation
Edge = predicted Ks − sportsbook line. When |edge| ≥ the configured minimum threshold we issue an Over (positive edge) or Under (negative edge) recommendation. Otherwise it's No pick. Lines come from Hard Rock Bet; if no line is posted, no pick can be made.
Buy down one line
Under the main Over/Under odds, each card shows Buy down · Over X.5 — the Over price for the line one full strikeout below the official line (e.g. if the line is 3.5, this is the Over 2.5 price). It's the safer alternate-line play: a lower strikeout target at reduced odds. Pulled live from the same sportsbook; hidden when the book isn't posting that alternate line. Use the Buy Down Line and Buy Down Odds min/max filters to narrow the slate by the lower line or its price.
Line movement
A small marker next to each line shows how it has moved since it first opened: ▲ the line rose, ▼ it fell, and = it hasn't moved (or has no history yet). The number is the total move in strikeouts. Click any line to see its full snapshot-by-snapshot history.
Locking
Predictions update through the day as lineups and lines move. They lock 30 minutes before first pitch, after which the prediction and pick are frozen. Once the game is final, the pick is automatically graded against the actual strikeout count.
Units
Flat $25 unit size. Wins return profit at the locked odds; losses are -$25; pushes (whole-number lines that match exactly) are zero; voids are zero.