How Strikeout Predictions Work
The Model
A Random Forest regressor trained on historical starter performance. It uses pitcher form (season + last-5 starts, K%, BF/start, home/away splits), opposing lineup strikeout rates, park environment factors, and game context (home/away, day/night) to predict the strikeout total for each starting pitcher.
Status badges
Scheduled — pitcher is the announced probable starter. Confirmed — opposing lineup is posted. Locked — pick has been frozen 30 minutes before first pitch. Final — game complete and graded. Scratched — pitcher pulled before game; pick voided. Void — pick voided for any other reason.
Edge & recommendation
Edge = predicted Ks − sportsbook line. When |edge| ≥ the configured minimum threshold we issue an Over (positive edge) or Under (negative edge) recommendation. Otherwise it's No pick. Lines come from Hard Rock Bet; if no line is posted, no pick can be made.
Locking
Predictions update through the day as lineups and lines move. They lock 30 minutes before first pitch, after which the prediction and pick are frozen. Once the game is final, the pick is automatically graded against the actual strikeout count.
Units
Flat $25 unit size. Wins return profit at the locked odds; losses are -$25; pushes (whole-number lines that match exactly) are zero; voids are zero.