How NRFI Predictions Work
What it predicts
For every MLB game, the model estimates the probability that no run scores in the entire 1st inning (both halves) — the classic NRFI bet. The percentage shown is a calibrated probability: when the model says 62%, it aims to be right about 62% of the time.
Top 5 picks
The 5 highest-probability games each day are the featured picks, ranked 1–5. Selection is purely by model probability — the market edge shown on each card is context, and never changes the ranking.
Market & edge
Where sportsbooks post a 1st-inning total (0.5), the card shows the de-vigged market NRFI probability and the model's edge against it in percentage points. Games without a posted market show "no line" — they still get a probability and can still make the top 5.
Locking
Each game locks 10 minutes before its first pitch — independently, since start times differ. At lock the probability, rank, and top-5 status freeze for grading; before lock they drift as lineups, starters, and umpires firm up.
Grading & units
Win if the 1st inning finishes 0-0, loss if any run scores. Games postponed before the 1st inning completes are void. Units assume a flat $25 stake at the locked NRFI price (−110 when no line was posted).
Lineups & data
Cards show whether each lineup is confirmed (officially posted) or projected. Predictions re-run automatically as lineups confirm through the day.