Building sample: only 7 graded picks so far.
Every prediction and result is shown from day one — treat early records as noise
until the sample grows.
🎯 Top 5 NRFI Picks
Full Slate
Loading…
How NRFI Predictions Work
What it predicts
For every MLB game, the model estimates the probability that no run scores in
the entire 1st inning (both halves) — the classic NRFI bet. The percentage shown
is a calibrated probability: when the model says 62%, it aims to be right about 62%
of the time.
Top 5 picks
The 5 highest-probability games each day are the featured picks,
ranked 1–5. Selection is purely by model probability — the market edge
shown on each card is context, and never changes the ranking.
Market & edge
Where sportsbooks post a 1st-inning total (0.5), the card shows the de-vigged
market NRFI probability and the model's edge against it in percentage points.
Games without a posted market show "no line" — they still get a probability and can
still make the top 5.
Locking
Each game locks 10 minutes before its first pitch —
independently, since start times differ. At lock the probability, rank, and
top-5 status freeze for grading; before lock they drift as lineups,
starters, and umpires firm up.
Grading & units
Win if the 1st inning finishes 0-0, loss if any run scores. Games postponed
before the 1st inning completes are void. Units assume a flat
$25 stake at the locked NRFI price (−110 when no
line was posted).
Lineups & data
Cards show whether each lineup is confirmed (officially posted) or
projected. Predictions re-run automatically as lineups confirm through the
day.