Braves Parlay (H+R+RBI) | GameDay Analytics — MLB

Today History Performance

Each Braves starter's Hits + Runs + RBIs leg ranked by the probability it lands on the correct side of 1.5 — then the highest-probability legs auto-assembled into a parlay.

All legs by confidence

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How the Braves Parlay Model Works

The goal

Build a multi-leg parlay of Braves H+R+RBI props where each leg is as likely as possible to be correct. In a parlay you multiply leg probabilities, so the only thing that matters is P(correct direction).

Confidence, not edge

Unlike the single-pick model (which bets value vs. the sportsbook price), this model ranks legs purely by confidence = the higher of P(over 1.5) and P(under 1.5) from a 25,000-game Monte Carlo simulation. The side with the higher probability is the leg's direction.

Why mostly unders

At the 1.5 line most hitters project just under 50% to go over, so the more-likely side is usually UNDER. Legs cap around 55–65% confidence, so a 3-leg parlay lands near ~20% combined — high payout, real risk.

Auto-assembly

From the players the book posts a 1.5 line for, the top legs by confidence (above a minimum threshold) are combined into the parlay. Combined probability is the product of leg confidences; combined odds is the product of the leg prices.

Frozen on lineup post

Legs lock the instant the official lineup is confirmed and never change. The headline number above is leg directional accuracy — how often the picked side is correct — which is what a parlay model lives or dies by.

History & Performance tabs

The History tab lists every past parlay with its legs, grades, odds, and units won or lost. The Performance tab rolls everything up: parlay record and units by window, a cumulative-units chart, and leg accuracy broken down by direction, confidence, parlay membership, and lineup slot.