NRFI History & Performance

Record & scope

Every locked pick is graded and counted. Overall covers the whole slate; Top-5 counts only the games that were among the day's featured picks at their lock. Units assume a flat stake at the locked NRFI price (−110 when no line was posted); ROI = units won ÷ units risked on decided picks.

Buckets & calibration

Picks group by their locked model probability. The calibration table is the honest scoreboard: Predicted is the average probability the model claimed, Actual is how often the NRFI actually hit — a calibrated model keeps those columns close as the sample grows.

CLV

Closing Line Value compares the de-vigged market NRFI probability at lock with the last one captured before first pitch. Consistently beating the close is evidence of real edge independent of short-term results.

Filters

From/To bound the date range; Scope narrows to Top-5 picks; Result isolates wins, losses, or voids (games postponed before the 1st inning finished).

Cumulative Units

Windows

By Probability Bucket

Calibration — Predicted vs Actual

Closing Line Value

Picks

Daily Drill-Down

NRFI History & Performance ?