Under 1.5 Total Bases ?

What is Total Bases?

Total Bases (TB) counts the base value of a batter's hits: singles = 1, doubles = 2, triples = 3, home runs = 4. Going "under 1.5 TB" means the batter gets 0 or 1 total base in that game — a scoreless outing or a lone single.

Step 1 — Lineup Position Filter

We only consider batters hitting in spots #6, #7, #8, #9 (bottom of the order). These hitters get fewer plate appearances and tend to see fewer advantageous counts. Sprint speed must be below 28.5 ft/s — faster runners tend to leg out infield hits that inflate TB.

Step 2 — Contact Quality Regression Candidates

We look for batters showing signs of luck-driven performance: wOBA meaningfully above xwOBA (divergence > 0.020), sweet-spot% below 33%, hard-hit% below 35%, and barrel% below 5%. Low sweet-spot and hard-hit rates mean when they do make contact, it tends to be weak.

Step 3 — Pitcher and Matchup Checks

The opposing pitcher must be tough: xwOBA-against ≤ 0.320 and xSLG-against ≤ 0.380. Platoon disadvantage (same-handed batter vs pitcher) is a bonus signal. High GB% (lots of ground balls) and favorable pitch-mix (high sinker/changeup usage) add further confidence.

Step 4 — Venue Filter

Ballparks with a park run factor above 1.05 are excluded — offense-friendly venues make under bets harder to hit. Pitcher-friendly parks (HR factor below 0.95) are slightly preferred.

Step 5 — Divergence Flag (Informational)

A ⚑ flag means the player's historical record against under props shows a below-average under hit rate. This is informational only — it doesn't filter the player out, but you should weigh it in your decision.

Step 6 — Odds Floor

Under odds must be at least -190 or better (i.e., not worse than -190). Lines shorter than this imply the market already prices in a very high under probability, leaving little value.

Confidence Score (0–100)

The confidence score is a weighted average of 7 component scores:

Luck (wOBA vs xwOBA divergence) · Contact Quality (sweet-spot + hard-hit + barrel composite) · Pitcher Quality (xwOBA-against) · Pitcher GB% (ground ball tendency) · Pitch Mix (sinker/changeup share) · Lineup Spot (bottom-order position depth) · Venue (park factor suppression)

Click a card to see how each component contributed to that player's score. If Pitch Mix shows 50, the model had no pitch-mix data for that pitcher.

Top 15 Cards

The top 15 predictions by confidence score appear as hero cards above the table. The full qualifying slate is in the sortable table below. Use the team filter chips to narrow the table to specific teams.

Sportsbook

Odds default to Hard Rock Bet (the default sportsbook in the model config). The under odds shown are as captured at prediction time (the prior evening). Live lines may have moved — always confirm with your sportsbook before placing a bet. The odds shown are from whichever book was available when the model ran; no live re-query is performed.

Past Dates

Use the date picker to review past predictions. Green outline = under hit (≤1 TB); red = over (2+ TB); yellow = push or no plate appearance. Each card shows the actual TB in the corner.

Limitations

Predictions are generated pre-lineup at night. Late lineup changes or scratches are not re-scored. The model does not incorporate weather, bullpen usage, or in-game leverage. Platoon checks use season-level bat/pitch hand — no within-season splits.