HRR Predictions
Today's hits + runs + RBIs picks, ranked by model edge over the book.
How HRR Predictions Works
What is HRR?
HRR is Hits + Runs + RBIs, a common MLB player prop offered by most sportsbooks. If a player gets 1 hit, scores 1 run, and drives in 1 RBI, that's 3 HRR.
How predictions are made
Our current model (v1-marcel) takes each batter's season hit/run/RBI rates per plate appearance, shrinks them toward the league mean (Marcel-style), then adjusts for the opposing starting pitcher (via xwOBA-against) and the ballpark (via park factors). We run a numpy Monte Carlo to produce a full probability distribution over HRR outcomes and compute the probability that the batter goes over or under the sportsbook line.
How edge is computed
Edge is our model's probability minus the sportsbook's devigged probability. A higher edge means a bigger disagreement in your favor. Positive edges are shown prominently on the hero cards.
Top-N hero cards
We promote the top 15 edges across today's slate to the hero section above the table. The full slate (all active HRR props for the date) is in the sortable table below.
Sportsbook selection
We default to Hard Rock Bet. If a prop isn't posted there, we fall back to the best available line across active sportsbooks and tag the card with the source. You can change your preferred sportsbook in the toolbar.
Past dates
Use the date picker to see what the model called on past dates. Green outlines = the pick hit; red = missed; yellow = push. Past predictions are never rewritten — what you see is what we called at the time.
Limitations
The model does not yet use weather, bullpen workload, handedness platoon splits inside its core math (we show vs-RHP / vs-LHP recent form on the expanded card, but the prediction itself does not split on it), or pitch-type matchups. Predictions are generated pre-lineup at 6:45 AM CT; lineup changes after that are not re-scored. Recent-form comparisons on the expanded card use today's line as a reference — not the actual closing line from each historical game.