Heavy Home Favorites
MLB games where heavy favorites, a strong starter, and a reliable bullpen align
How Heavy Home Favorites Works
What is this?
This system identifies MLB games where a "bridge" situation exists — the home team is a heavy moneyline favorite with a quality starter, a reliable bullpen, and no sweep pressure. These conditions historically favor the home team carrying a lead through the late innings.
The checks
Each game is evaluated against five criteria:
| Moneyline | The home team's moneyline must be between -200 and -250, indicating a heavy but not extreme favorite. You can override this value live to test different lines. |
| Home Starter | The home starting pitcher must be rated Ace or Solid tier (assigned in the admin pitcher evaluations). Avg, Swing, or unrated starters fail this check. |
| Bullpen LOB% | The home bullpen's Left On Base percentage must be ≥75%, meaning they strand inherited runners at a high rate and protect leads. |
| Relievers | The home team's designated setup man and closer must not be flagged as high-risk (unavailable, injured, or recently overworked). |
| Series Status | The home team must not be in a sweep situation, where motivation dynamics can shift unpredictably. |
Reading the results
| Qualifying | All five checks passed — strongest bridge signal |
| Near Miss | Only 1 check failed — still worth monitoring |
| Other | 2+ checks failed — bridge conditions not met |
Moneyline override
The moneyline field is editable on each card. Type a different value to instantly recalculate whether the game qualifies. This is useful when lines move closer to game time — the verdict updates in real time without reloading.
Things to know
- Starter tiers and reliever designations are set in the admin panel under Pitcher Evaluations
- Bullpen LOB% is calculated from this season's game data
- Red flag badges (HIGH RISK, SWEEP RISK) appear below the checks when applicable
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Date
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Total Games
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Qualifying
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Near Miss
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