Runs Under Predictions — Performance
Cumulative Units
Calibration Reliability
Each row is a model-probability decile. Predicted is the mean model P(zero) in the bucket; Actual is the observed share that scored zero. A well-calibrated model has the two columns track each other.
Breakdowns
By Edge Bucket
By Odds Band
By Batting Slot
By Park (min 5 picks)
Loss Diagnostics
Categorizes every losing UNDER pick by how many runs the player actually scored.